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1

Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown

Smith, Doug M., Booth, Ben B. B., Dunstone, Nick J., Eade, Rosie, Hermanson, Leon, Jones, Gareth S., Scaife, Adam A., Sheen, Katy L., Thompson, Vikki

Journal:

Nature Climate Change

Year:

2016

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.27 MB

english, 2016

2

Skilful Seasonal Predictions of Summer European Rainfall

Dunstone, Nick, Smith, Doug, Scaife, Adam, Hermanson, Leon, Fereday, David, O'Reilly, Chris, Stirling, Alison, Eade, Rosie, Gordon, Margaret, Maclachlan, Craig, Woollings, Tim, Sheen, Katy, Belcher, S

Journal:

Geophysical Research Letters

Year:

2018

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 2.25 MB

english, 2018

3

A comparative method to evaluate and validate stochastic parametrizations

Leon Hermanson, Brian Hoskins, Tim Palmer

Journal:

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Year:

2009

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 631 KB

english, 2009

4

From observations to forecasts – Part 9: what is decadal forecasting?

Mat Collins, Tom Fricker, Leon Hermanson

Journal:

Year:

2011

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 614 KB

english, 2011

5

Case studies in interannual to decadal climate predictability

Leon Hermanson, Rowan T. Sutton

Journal:

Climate Dynamics

Year:

2010

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 3.61 MB

english, 2010

6

Predictions of Climate Several Years Ahead Using an Improved Decadal Prediction System

Knight, Jeff R., Andrews, Martin B., Smith, Doug M., Arribas, Alberto, Colman, Andrew W., Dunstone, Nick J., Eade, Rosie, Hermanson, Leon, MacLachlan, Craig, Peterson, K. Andrew, Scaife, Adam A., Will

Journal:

Journal of Climate

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 2.91 MB

english, 2014

7

The Representation of Atmospheric Blocking and the Associated Low-Frequency Variability in Two Seasonal Prediction Systems

Athanasiadis, Panos J., Bellucci, Alessio, Hermanson, Leon, Scaife, Adam A., MacLachlan, Craig, Arribas, Alberto, Materia, Stefano, Borrelli, Andrea, Gualdi, Silvio

Journal:

Journal of Climate

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 4.30 MB

english, 2014

8

Comments on “Multiyear Predictions of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency: Promise and Limitations”

Smith, Doug M., Dunstone, Nick J., Eade, Rosie, Fereday, David, Hermanson, Leon, Murphy, James M., Pohlmann, Holger, Robinson, Niall, Scaife, Adam A.

Journal:

Journal of Climate

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 159 KB

english, 2014

9

Mechanisms Linking Volcanic Aerosols to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Iwi, Alan M., Hermanson, Leon, Haines, Keith, Sutton, Rowan T.

Journal:

Journal of Climate

Year:

2012

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 2.04 MB

english, 2012

10

Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts

Hermanson, Leon, Eade, Rosie, Robinson, Niall H., Dunstone, Nick J., Andrews, Martin B., Knight, Jeff R., Scaife, Adam A., Smith, Doug M.

Journal:

Geophysical Research Letters

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 992 KB

english, 2014

11

Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?

Eade, Rosie, Smith, Doug, Scaife, Adam, Wallace, Emily, Dunstone, Nick, Hermanson, Leon, Robinson, Niall

Journal:

Geophysical Research Letters

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 729 KB

english, 2014

12

A novel transport assimilation method for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation at 26°N

Hermanson, Leon, Dunstone, Nick, Haines, Keith, Robson, Jon, Smith, Doug, Sutton, Rowan

Journal:

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Year:

2014

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.42 MB

english, 2014

13

Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead

Dunstone, Nick, Smith, Doug, Scaife, Adam, Hermanson, Leon, Eade, Rosie, Robinson, Niall, Andrews, Martin, Knight, Jeff

Journal:

Nature Geoscience

Year:

2016

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.93 MB

english, 2016

14

A multi-system view of wintertime NAO seasonal predictions.

Athanasiadis, Panos J., Bellucci, Alessio, Scaife, Adam A., Hermanson, Leon, Materia, Stefano, Sanna, Antonella, Borrelli, Andrea, MacLachlan, Craig, Gualdi, Silvio

Journal:

Journal of Climate

Year:

2016

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 3.30 MB

english, 2016

15

The impact of Labrador Sea temperature and salinity variability on density and the subpolar AMOC in a decadal prediction system

Menary, Matthew B., Hermanson, Leon, Dunstone, Nick J.

Journal:

Geophysical Research Letters

Year:

2016

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 775 KB

english, 2016

16

Predictability of European winter 2015/2016

Scaife, Adam A., Comer, Ruth, Dunstone, Nick, Fereday, David, Folland, Chris, Good, Elizabeth, Gordon, Margaret, Hermanson, Leon, Ineson, Sarah, Karpechko, Alexey, Knight, Jeff, MacLachlan, Craig, Mai

Journal:

Atmospheric Science Letters

Year:

2017

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 6.19 MB

english, 2017

17

How skilful are the multi-annual forecasts of Atlantic hurricane activity?

Caron, Louis-Philippe, Hermanson, Leon, Dobbin, Alison, Imbers, Jara, Lledó, Llorenç, Vecchi, Gabriel A.

Journal:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Year:

2017

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 9.12 MB

english, 2017

18

Multiannual forecasts of Atlantic U.S. tropical cyclone wind damage potential

Caron, Louis-Philippe, Hermanson, Leon, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.

Journal:

Geophysical Research Letters

Year:

2015

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 1.02 MB

english, 2015

19

Limits on determining the skill of North Atlantic Ocean decadal predictions

Menary, Matthew B., Hermanson, Leon

Journal:

Nature Communications

Year:

2018

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 747 KB

english, 2018

20

Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: The role of ensemble dispersion

Ho, Chun Kit, Hawkins, Ed, Shaffrey, Len, Bröcker, Jochen, Hermanson, Leon, Murphy, James M., Smith, Doug M., Eade, Rosie

Journal:

Geophysical Research Letters

Year:

2013

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 5.68 MB

english, 2013

21

Skilful real‐time seasonal forecasts of the dry Northern European Summer 2018

Dunstone, Nick, Smith, Doug, Hardiman, Steven, Eade, Rosie, Gordon, Margaret, Hermanson, Leon, Kay, Gillian, Scaife, Adam

Journal:

Geophysical Research Letters

Year:

2019

Language:

english

File:

PDF, 3.17 MB

english, 2019

22

Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems

Hermanson, Leon, Bilbao, Roberto, Dunstone, Nick, MÃ©nÃ©goz, Martin, Ortega, Pablo, Pohlmann, Holger, Robson, Jon I., Smith, Doug M., Strand, Gary, Timmreck, Claudia, Yeager, Steve, Danabasoglu, Gokha

Journal:

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Year:

2020

File:

PDF, 7.63 MB

2020

23

Skilful interannual climate prediction from two large initialised model ensembles

Dunstone, Nick, Smith, Doug, Yeager, Stephen, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Monerie, Paul-Arthur, Hermanson, Leon, Eade, Rosemary, Ineson, Sarah, Robson, Jon I, Scaife, Adam A., Ren, Hong-Li

Journal:

Environmental Research Letters

Year:

2020

File:

PDF, 2.23 MB

2020

24

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts for the Yangtze River Basin of China in Summer 2019 from an Improved Climate Service

Bett, Philip E., Martin, Nicola, Scaife, Adam A., Dunstone, Nick, Martin, Gill M., Golding, Nicola, Camp, Joanne, Zhang, Peiqun, Hewitt, Chris D., Hermanson, Leon, Li, Chaofan, Ren, Hong-Li, Liu, Ying

Journal:

Journal of Meteorological Research

Year:

2020

File:

PDF, 4.60 MB

2020